Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 2.872383 3.434141 4.062179 4.814220 5.688016 6.668946 7.851111
2025-11-16 2.066989 2.782254 3.666617 4.831642 6.316087 8.133441 10.514511
2025-11-23 1.576210 2.344258 3.376723 4.846682 6.862519 9.503371 13.192634
2025-11-30 1.230899 1.998975 3.109513 4.799329 7.264544 10.680460 15.709252
2025-12-07 0.940434 1.658540 2.769430 4.565625 7.336023 11.370797 17.590094
2025-12-14 0.767531 1.457832 2.591945 4.526150 7.656824 12.414888 20.040466
2025-12-21 0.638631 1.300315 2.449873 4.508669 7.989843 13.486728 22.606713
2025-12-28 0.579604 1.253234 2.480958 4.772816 8.792788 15.345399 26.531965
2026-01-04 0.510906 1.172859 2.437770 4.896789 9.365983 16.876797 30.053716
2026-01-11 0.462510 1.122471 2.439787 5.097255 10.084904 18.700079 34.186758
2026-01-18 0.400486 1.030200 2.345380 5.101564 10.446975 19.940222 37.428638
2026-01-25 0.331516 0.907265 2.168599 4.919288 10.438421 20.524224 39.575410
2026-02-01 0.273314 0.797570 2.003890 4.743321 10.431404 21.127333 41.840465
2026-02-08 0.237887 0.735885 1.933601 4.753571 10.789058 22.426834 45.459540
2026-02-15 0.207820 0.680931 1.869080 4.766237 11.150305 23.759122 49.235005
2026-02-22 0.178844 0.621619 1.783619 4.718923 11.378569 24.849364 52.629649
2026-03-01 0.145549 0.540555 1.629224 4.488527 11.186077 25.089385 54.402850
2026-03-08 0.125897 0.495722 1.559570 4.449587 11.407310 26.174100 57.898803
2026-03-15 0.109876 0.458097 1.502255 4.432351 11.673744 27.369104 61.693070
2026-03-22 0.105319 0.458522 1.551175 4.692514 12.608225 30.033413 68.641278
2026-03-29 0.096601 0.441743 1.547677 4.814625 13.226920 32.066717 74.415881
2026-04-05 0.090838 0.434453 1.571164 5.012095 14.045836 34.590408 81.368293
2026-04-12 0.080557 0.406545 1.526594 5.016339 14.389163 36.090859 86.247810